Monday, 22 June 2009

MICRO-ANALYSIS OF EU ELECTION IN WIGAN

Here is my personal analysis of the EU election results locally to Wigan. You will not read this sort of analysis in any of the media. These are the sorts of numbers they don’t want you to see – those numbers are the ones that simply say that Labour got the most votes. And so they did, but there’s much much more to it than that. Comments welcome. I have tried to be fair and impartial to everyone who participated, and some of my fellow party members may not like my approach – but we are the honest straight-talking party aren’t we? Straight talking also means giving credit as well as criticism. Well, it does in my book. But, well, I am a BNP man so I may have shown a little bias.


European elections Wigan

..........Con ......Lab ..........LDem .....UKIP .......Green .....BNP .......Respect ....Others .....Total ....Electorate ....Turnout
2004 13,449 .33,275 ...8,138 ....10,131 ...4,214 .....7,608 ....5,740 ......6,341 .....83,730 ..234,282 ......35.7%
2009 11,354 ..17,049 ...5,903 ....11,656 ..3,842 .....7,517 .....n/a .........6,189 .....63,760 ..236,091 ......27.01%

Total electorate increased by 1,809 voters.
Turnout DROPPED by 19,970 votes

Never mind the numbers for the individual parties (which I will take a look at shortly), just that pair of numbers alone tells us that the people out there are not happy, and it’s the entire political system they aren’t happy with. Politicians – all politicians at every level – should start getting very worried about that. History from all over the world tells us that when the people lose confidence in the system itself, the pitchforks and flaming torches come out for an airing ... closely followed by ropes, decorated lamposts, and la Madame. The mob is a ravening beast and there is no reasoning with it once it forms. Human behaviour really does change in a mob, and people do things they would consider unacceptable when they are on their own. Are you a councillor or an MP? My advice is to drop the currently dominant ideology immediately and start working for popularity. That’s popularity with the BRITISH people, not immigrants, whether EU citizen or Third World immigrants. And as for the EU and the Third World themselves? They don’t matter – only the native BRITISH matter as far as your personal well-being is concerned.

You can never complain that you weren’t warned and given well-intended advice. If you find yourself unable or unwilling to act on said advice – ideology can get such a strong grip on what passes for a mind in some people – then the next best advice is to immediately resign – if you are fortunate you may get forgotten about. Please don’t think “it can’t happen here”, because it can happen anywhere. You are the people constantly telling us that all people and cultures are the same and equal, and it is only right and proper that we exist in a multicultural multiracial society … and then you unconsciously concede that this is a lie by thinking “it can’t happen here”, as if you really, deep down, know that different peoples, different cultures, are NOT the same. It’s make your minds up time – what do you really believe? Are we all the same, or are we all different? What do I believe? I believe that peoples/races and the cultures they generate (race is not a social construct; society is a racial construct – the exact opposite of Newspeakpcthink) are different, and that some are better than others (ours is one of the better ones). And different people do produce different cultures – just look around the world. Certain behaviours are constants though when circumstances combine to evoke them. Particularly mob behaviours, though mobs form a lot easier in some cultures/peoples/races than others – because cultures/peoples/races are different. The British people/culture is one where it has historically been very difficult to get a mob to form. However, history shows that mobs can form here, and such circumstances are currently combining; and the early indicators are there to see if you’ll only look. Those numbers are an early (but not the only) indicator …

BNP 2004 7,608 votes 9.09%(of turnout)
BNP 2009 7,517 votes 11.79%(of turnout)

That is a reduction in our vote of 91 votes. However, that comes out as only a drop of 1.2%, which on a 2004 base of 7,608 votes is statistically insignificant. Looked at in statistical terms, our vote this time was the same as last time. Apart from UKIP, we did better both in actual numbers terms and in percentage terms than any other party, including all the “Others” in combination. I’ll go through them all to explain what I mean.

Total turnout: The media will have it that in 2004, the turnout was 35.7%, and this time it was 27.01% - a drop of 8.69%. That is from the total electorate. But let’s look at this in a way the media is keeping very quiet about:

No of voters 2004 83,730.
No of voters 2009 63,760

That is a drop in the number of people who voted in 2004 of 19,970. In percentage terms, the number of people who were motivated to actually vote dropped by 23.9%. That is highly statistically significant. The other parties will claim that this is because it was a wholly postal vote last time, and wasn’t this time. What they wont like you being told, however, is that the percentage of all the postal votes that were returned also dropped. I was there at the postal vote opening, and ballot counting, and box sealing, every day, so I saw the numbers for myself. Quite apart from the pathetically low turnout in the first place, the turnout in those who could normally be considered motivated to vote, also dropped by nearly a highly significant quarter. Compared to that, the BNP vote being statistically, the same on both occasions, is a case of doing very well indeed. Indeed, as we got 11.79% of the vote, it’s likely that a similar percentage of that 20,000 voters who didn’t vote this time probably voted BNP last time – somewhere around 2,000 more BNP voters out there too disgusted with the whole electoral system to vote at all. Go get them back folks - they wont turn up of their own accord. That we kept our vote up despite that, and despite the campaign of vilification by the media, the church, all the other parties, the unions, and all those organizations (UAF etc) whose whole reason for being is to vilify the BNP, is a testament to the work put in by Wigan BNP this time around. Well done boys ‘n girls. And make no mistake about it: we in Wigan played a big part in the difference between sending Mr. Griffin to Brussels and not sending Mr. Griffin to Brussels.

That’s on actual turnout for all parties; how did it go for all the other parties individually? Apart from UKIP, not very well at all – to make a gross understatement.

Conservative Party:
No of voters 2004 13,449
No of voters 2009 11,354.

That is a drop of 2,195 votes, or in percentage terms, a drop of 16.3%. On a 2004 base of 13,449 votes that is a statistically very significant fall in support. I can account for most of this (later), so the Conservative Party may not actually be in too much trouble in Wigan at the next general election. So not necessarily a total disaster for them, as we will see later.

Lib/Dem Party
No of voters 2004 8,138
No of voters 2009 5,903

That is a drop of 2,235 votes, or in percentage terms, a drop of 27.5%. On a 2004 base of 8,138 votes that is a statistically highly significant fall in support. Unlike for the Tories, I’m unable to dredge up any later consolation for them, and they are in a lot of trouble at the next general election. And it gets worse for them: in 2004 they beat the BNP by 8,138 votes to 7,603 votes – 535 votes; but this time around the BNP in fourth place pushed the Lib/Dems into fifth place by 7,517 votes to 5,903 votes – 1,614 votes. We not only turned the difference around, we more than tripled that difference in doing so. The Lib/Dem humiliation must feel quite exquisite. I’m not entirely sure I would bother with the next general election if I was making the Lib/Dem decisions. Nobody likes losing deposits: especially in the process of being beaten by the BNP naziscum bootboy knuckledraggers.

Green Party
No of voters 2004 4,214
No of voters 2009 3,842

That is a drop of 372 votes, or, in percentage terms, a drop of 8.82%. On a 2004 base of 4,214 votes that is a statistically significant fall in support. The only consolation I can offer for the Greens is that it wasn’t very significant, or highly significant – but it was a significant fall all the same. This is particularly ironic in that the Green Party was the “Great White Hope” of those of our opponents whose sole reason for being was to prevent Mr. Griffin going to Brussels. If you had been reading the leftard blogs, as I have been, you’d have seen that they were pushing the Greens on the grounds that if they got enough votes then purely on the proportional basis they might prevent BNP success – and voting Green was a way of not voting for the mainstream parties … and might even lead to Green success. After all, they already had two Green MEPs from elsewhere in the country. So: abject failure all–round for them. Sorry Greenies – you know you nearly always lose when the BNP stands someone against you. Especially in the North.

Respect Party
No of voters 2004 5,740
No of voters 2009 zero – they didn’t stand a candidate.

Stephen Hall, a local man, should be ashamed of himself. He was, along with Peter Franzen, one of the instigators of what turned into the infamous hammer attack. He is also the Deputy Chairman of the Respect Party, ‘Gorgeous George’ Galloway’s vehicle for financial self-enrichment, and societal Muslim enrichment. No doubt he would say that he didn’t put up a candidate in order to maximize the Green vote. An epic fail there then Mr. Hall. You do all you can to ruin the BNP’s election chances and then do not yourself participate in said election. You and all your truly fascist scumbag fellow SWP etc. people are beneath my contempt and I will not mention you again in this article.

Others
No of voters 2004 6,341
No of voters 2009 6,189

This was a drop of 152 votes, or, in percentage terms, a drop of 2.4%. That is not a statistically significant drop in support, so essentially, like the BNP vote and despite the near-20,000 drop in voters from 2004, the same vote as achieved in 2004. It seems there will always be something a little over 6,000 people in Wigan who will vote for other than the established parties no matter who or what they may be. That is a valid political statement and thank you for making it – you did at least vote, along with those who spoiled their ballot papers (254), also making a valid political statement (“A plague on all your houses” – a perfectly valid political opinion to express, and thank you for expressing it). It constituted the combined vote for six other registered parties plus one Independent candidate. Well done sir for having the courage to stand alone. Never an easy thing to do. You didn’t get many votes, but you do have the consolation of knowing those votes were for you. And you did at least participate, unlike … oh, I wasn’t going to mention those contemptible fascist scumbags again was I. We in the BNP can respect you for that, and we do.

UKIP
No of voters 2004 10,131
No of voters 2009 11,656

This was an increase of 1,525 votes, or, in percentage terms, a rise of 15.1%. That is a highly significant rise in support. The only party in Wigan who participated in both 2004 and 2009 who achieved a rise in their vote. Well done Mr. Jones – I think the Tories made a mistake in letting you go. But that’s just my opinion, and you already knew I held that opinion. I don’t think UKIP can take any consolation from this result though, at least not in general election terms – and this is where my above-mentioned consolation for the Tory drop in support comes in. We already know that over Europe the Tories are a divided party. Most – possibly all – of the UKIP increased vote is the same people that resulted in the Tory decreased vote. They can do this at EU elections, but will return to the Tories – along with many other Tory UKIP voters at a general election. So, the BNP vote remains fairly steady across elections at all levels, but UKIP votes are for EU elections only. We regularly beat UKIP at all other levels of representation, and that pattern will return. But nevertheless, well done to the only party that increased their vote here in Wigan despite the fact that the total number of voters dropped by 19,970.

Labour
No of voters 2004 33,275
No of voters 2009 17,049

This was a drop of 16,226 votes, or, in percentage terms, a drop of 48.8%. On a 2004 base of 33,275 votes, this is an extremely highly significant drop in support. In fact, without any exaggeration it can be described as an electoral disaster. Note that word: EXTREMELY. If that was the BNP heads would roll within the local party organization. However, this is the Labour party and local groups and branches do not have the operational independence that BNP local groups and branches have; it is far more centralized so perhaps I should say that heads should roll at Labour Party headquarters. They wont though – Labour party activists and politicians are past masters at deflecting blame onto others. It’s always someone else’s fault – Americans for economic problems to individual MPs cheating on expenses for electoral problems. No matter what the problem, it's always someone else's fault.

Now get this, Labour Party: you didn’t lose all these votes (and not just here in Wigan) because of expenses cheating. That was just the icing on the cake. And it didn’t happen because of the economic problems – that was just the marzipan under the icing. You have lost support, and now will probably face a full generation out of power because you have ridden roughshod over the people of this country for 12 years. That’s assuming you don’t get a Canada-type hit and cease to exist (The Conservatives in Canada went from government to only two MPs in one election, and now no longer exist as a party) as a party because who will contribute millions to a rump of a party to enable it to pay off its debts which stand somewhere near £18,000,000? Is it just the party executive that takes personal – jointly and severally, with all the personally financially disastrous implications of that – responsibility for that debt, or is it all party members? Whatever – Labour is facing extinction. You have totally ignored the British people’s wishes – we want a halt to immigration, we want a referendum – as promised – on the European constitution (which is what the Lisbon Treaty is) as promised, we don’t want to be part of your database state, no ID cards – we are sick of being under surveillance as soon as we leave the house to go anywhere, we don’t like our journeys tracked, we don’t like being engaged in illegal wars in our name, we don’t like being held responsible for the murder in those illegal wars of hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians (I use the plural – wars – because there have been at least two – everyone remembers Iraq … have we forgotten our once friend Serbia so soon?), we don’t like our phone calls and internet activity monitored, we don’t like the way the police are developing into paramilitary forces, we want to make our own laws instead of having 75% of them made by foreigners for us (Let’s have some additions in the comments) … which will rise to 100% of our laws made by foreigners when that constitution (Lisbon Treaty) comes into force. You’re (Labour) going to accuse me of lying when I say that aren’t you – like that moron MEP Corbett (unless he was just voted out and replaced by our Andrew Brons?) who publicly claims that only 9% of our laws are made by foreigners. So, just in case of that, watch this film – it’s a UKIP film, not a BNP film (I’m envious – I wish we had made it) but ALL British people should watch it. It features the President of the European Union Parliament, Hans Gert Pottering, speaking in his native language, German. THAT will be a sore point with the British people. Subtitles are in English so you can know exactly what this powerful German is saying. The sound of a German, speaking in clear and very precise German, gloating that HE is going to be making ALL BRITISH (by implication) law in future surely must rub you up the wrong way, as it does me (and I greatly admire Germany and the Germans in general). If you don’t get seriously angry, then frankly, you deserve to lose your country and I will become a hermit and let you get on with giving your country and people away to foreign dominion … which will effectively mean Islam, in the medium-to-long term. You want your daughters and granddaughters subject to the whims of Muslim males do you? Have you any knowledge of how non-Muslims are treated in Pakistan? Get some - Google is your friend.



And if anyone tries to say I’m lying about Islam, watch this:




Anyhow – a comprehensive disaster for Labour. It’s no good them saying their voters didn’t come out to vote because by definition, if they didn’t vote for you then they are not your voters. Simple as that. You have lost them and you will never get them back. We in the BNP are more likely to get them than you are, especially if they take the trouble to read our party manifesto which demonstrates that we are today in the UK the nearest thing there is to the OLD Labour party that they loved and voted in droves for (as I did, actually). Can I offer any consolation? Yes, two consolations actually: the government of this country is going to be Tory after the next general election; your consolation in that is that they wont get elected because they are loved or even thought well of – but there is a back edge to that: they will become the government because they are not you. A secondary consolation, particular to Mr. Turner, is that the long ingrained Wigan habit of voting Labour may hold for one more general election, and a very chastened Mr.Turner may very well be returned to a pretty lonely existence at Westminster after the next general election. When he was first elected at a by-election in 1999 he inherited a majority in excess of 60%; this had reduced to 56% by 2005, and I doubt he’ll do better than 40% in 2010, if that.

To Summarise in statistical terms, the voting pattern from 2004-2009:

UKIP – highly significant rise in support
BNP – vote remained the same
Others – vote remained the same
Green – significant drop in support
Tories – very significant drop in support
Lib/Dems – highly significant drop in support
Labour – extremely highly significant drop in support

So, BNPers – a short break then shoulders back to the wheel for the next round of elections, local and general, in 2010. We have to talk to people, and we have to talk to them all the time, not just at election times – how many times do activists for the other parties hear the complaint: “We only see you at election time, when you want something”. You might be amazed to discover that very often, just speaking to someone face to face and simply asking him or her to vote for us is all that it takes to secure that vote.

Morg
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8 comments:

Abu Abdullah said...

(Gary – can you embed this for me please? – you’ll have to teach me how to do that one of these days)

It's very simple. Go to YouTube and look for the Embed code in the box on the right-hand side of the video. Copy it, paste it into your draft blog post, and you're done.

Anti-gag said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anti-gag said...

Hi Morg,

open another blog called say: 'Wigantest.blogspot.com' and use it for testing ideas out. The size of the embedded videos can be changed to fit in better with the text.

Experiment, experiment, experiment.

From
Chris Hill
(Lancaster)

red said...

You do spout some SH@TE charles.Whats this about a 41 year old man from leigh arrested. Was he one of your lot? how do people put up with this dross?

Leigh, Lancashire Nationalist said...

It's quite a simple response Mr(R)Ed, no he wasn't one of our lot!

Why would he be? Please enlighten me?

And have some respect for your elders Mr(R)Ed, are you always so foul mouthed towards our pensioners?

red said...

foul mouthed? me never, i dont see any swear word there. It sounded like it could of been one of your lot! who says he is as old as me? you do take alot for granted dont you?

Andrew said...

Dear REd.

I have a photo of those mates of yours arrested at Blackpool.

Its very strange How they were dressed in such a way, just for that occasion. And how come they lived in such disparate areas?

Set up. No question.

Andrew said...

I've done some research! The arrested are keyboard warriors called the "BFF". Nowt to do with the BNP, rED.

Back to the subject.
I would love to know what was in the minds of those who would of voted for us but maybe voted, say, ukip instead. Did they believe the lies and slurs off the media?

For the BNP to do so well in council elections but only nominally in EU "regions" I find surprising. But we are still onwards and upwards according to form.

yaz