Saturday, 6 June 2009

A PRE COUNT ELECTION VIEW

I've just watched the chairman's assessment of the elections and his pride at our massive progress in the local elections with three County Council seats and many second places.

Congratulations to the successful Three.
I do however echo the chairman's fears that UKIP will do very well and may deprive us of many seats and perhaps all.

Four weeks ago they were a dying party, wracked by sleaze and corruption but the events of recent weeks have propelled them int a much better position than their performance in Europe merits. They have had massive promotion in the media with the odious creepy Farage being given prime shots on television.

The unprecedented smear campaign against us by the media, Searchlies and the Church who are not political parties, with millions af anti BNP leaflets and stories distributed by them will no doubt have done us much damage. Indeed it's a miracle we get any support at all after this.

If we were guilty of any of the things alleged about us we would not deserve any votes at all. I would certainly not be a member.
BUT WE ARE NOT.

The fact that democracy can be subverted by these massively funded "non political" organisations is a disgrace. It is not democracy at all.

So there it is I don't expect any MEPs but I recognise our massive growth locally and in ground roots visibility and support. We have also gained thousands of new members.

We have laid the foundations, strong foundations on which to build our future. The internet is also increasingly providing a counter to press and media censorship.

We will see how long the other party's houses of straw last, not long in my opinion as they have no foundations of policy or belief.

When they fall with our foundations there, we will be in position to rebuild our country and make it strong again, for we alone have faith with this land and people and they are increasingly realising it.

Our progress agains all the odds is relentless and we will in the end prevail.

15 comments:

Leigh, Lancashire Nationalist said...

We will gain at least one MEP, Lanky Patriot!! Because I truly believe we will (I actually dreamt we'd get two in the NW!) If you don't believe you don't succeed!

Who'd have thought Holland would beat England in yesterdays 20/20 cricket?

Anyway, I can fully appreciate were you and Nick are coming from with not wanting to build peoples hopes up too much, and thus not wanting to disappoint and no doubt protect the newer members and supporters.

But,I'm going to predict between 11-15% vote for the British National Party here in the North West for the European Elections count tomorrow!

Optimistic?

Sir Henry Morgan said...

No Gary - realistic. I reckon that here in Wigan our support will be between 10-15%.

We won three County Councillors only - but have you seen our percentages in those elections we didn't win? 20% was not unusual. Not enough to win in FPTP elections - but plenty for a seat or two in PR elections. It wont be the full 20% for us - but I too reckon 10-15% overall. I am assuming that those who voted BNP in the County elections will, at the same time, have voted BNP in the Euros.

I too am optimistic.

Leigh, Lancashire Nationalist said...

I don't believe this, I have just checked my e-mails and guess what?

I have received an e-mail from our Chairman; one which is circulated to all subscribers of these updates from the British National Party and I will replicate a piece from it:

"North West region: Average BNP vote: 13.1 percent. Result: One BNP Euro seat, and possibly two."

Now, let's see if my prediction of RIP VAN WINKLE winning the Epsom Derby comes to fruition??

Optimistic?

Leigh, Lancashire Nationalist said...

Gan Amhras possibly second?

Lanky Patriot said...

I'm a born pessimist Gary. If you are one you always have pleasant surprises.
I know you support Bolton so you must be used to having your hopes dashed. I can't stand it so I'll remain pessimistic.
I never watched St Helens v Wigan Rugby League because if I went Wigan always lost. If it was on Telly and we were losing I fed my cattle and when I came in we had won.
One thing in our favour is that the Metro voters are not Tory, and Labour voters more likely to vote for us than the sham Tories of UKIP and even I think we will do better than average in Metro areas.

BTW how did you get this e mail estimate off the Chairman? Ive not had one.

Leigh, Lancashire Nationalist said...

I don't think I should have published my predictions on this blog regarding the "Derby" horse race?

Although, Rip Van Winkle did come fourth!!

And I believe Gan Amhras which finished eleventh, has been consigned to a life on Blackpool beach!

Leigh, Lancashire Nationalist said...

I will publish the e-mail in two parts:

Part 1)

Fellow Patriot,
The British National Party stands to take at least one European parliamentary seat and has a chance of taking another three, according to a detailed analysis of the local election results across the country.

The BNP’s statistical analysis department has taken all of the available local election results from each region, and combined them to generate an average BNP vote across each region. These figures then provide a basis upon which European parliamentary results can be estimated. (European parliamentary seats are apportioned according to a complicated highest averages system known as the d’Hondt method, which is dependent on the total number of votes a party receives and the number of seats already allocated to that party in the election).

The analysis of the local election results on Thursday are subject to a number of important caveats as far as the BNP is concerned:

Firstly, in many regions, elections took place in local authorities which were not traditional BNP territory. For example, the BNP fought seats in the South East which had never been contested before, while in the West Midlands, there were no elections in BNP strongholds such as Stoke. For this reason, the local authority election results will be skewed, but they are the only figures currently available upon which any estimates can be made.

Secondly, party political choice at local level may not be representative of party choice at national level. There is a strong train of thought which suggests that turnout for the BNP at Euro level is lower than at local level. Conversely, there is an equally strong argument that people who have voted BNP at local level are likely to already feel strongly enough about politics to carry this allegiance through to Euro level. On the current figures, it is impossible to tell which of the two scenarios will play out. Either of them, in any event, do not affect the fact that the BNP has an excellent chance of taking at least one seat in the North West.

Thirdly, the final Euro tally will be affected by the size of the turnout for the UKIP party. Talked up by the media, it is highly possible that large numbers of people who have voted Tory at local level would have given their Euro vote to UKIP. This will see a substantial UKIP vote, which may affect the ability of the BNP to take seats under the d’Hondt system, even if its vote increases as per the figures below.

With these important caveats in mind, here follows the average local election result for the BNP. The possibility of a win or loss is calculated upon the minimum percentages required for the BNP to place on that region’s list of elected MEPs:

South West region: Average BNP vote: 6.8 percent. Result: No Euro BNP seat.............

Leigh, Lancashire Nationalist said...

Part 2)

.....South East region: Average BNP vote: 7.4 percent. Result: BNP vote just below the threshold, therefore no Euro BNP seat. (This result can be affected by the fact that the BNP only fought local elections in many areas which had either never seen a BNP candidate before, or which had no record of previous large BNP votes.)

London region: Only one local election contested by BNP, vote was 17.5 percent. Impossible to make prediction, therefore must presume no Euro BNP seat.

East of England (Eastern) region: Average BNP vote: 9.8 percent. Result: BNP vote just below the threshold, therefore no Euro BNP seat.

East Midlands region: Average BNP vote: 14.3 percent. Result: One possible Euro BNP seat.

West Midlands region: Average BNP vote: 12.6 percent. Result: One possible Euro BNP seat. (This result could be boosted by the fact that the best BNP-supporting areas in the West Midlands - Stoke, Sandwell, Dudley and others - did not have local elections on Thursday, meaning that large numbers of BNP voters are not reflected in this average figure).

Yorkshire & Humberside region: Average BNP vote: 10.3 percent. Result: One possible Euro BNP seat. (This result could be boosted by the fact that the best BNP-supporting areas in Yorkshire - Leeds and others - did not have local elections on Thursday, meaning that large numbers of BNP votes are not reflected in this average figure).

North East region: Only two mayoral elections held, average BNP percentage in those two contests was 6 percent. Impossible to calculate on those figures, therefore no Euro BNP seat.

North West region: Average BNP vote: 13.1 percent. Result: One BNP Euro seat, and possibly two.

It therefore seems likely that that BNP will take at least one European parliamentary seat in the elections. If the local results hold true on the Euro level, it could be more.

In either event, the BNP has now established itself as a national presence, and has become firmly embedded throughout the country as a household name. Membership has increased dramatically during the campaign, and the party is now better placed than ever before to carry on the struggle for the survival of our nation.




Yours sincerely

Nick Griffin
Chairman, BNP

Anti-gag said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anti-gag said...

Morecambe Town Council (Poulton Ward).
Results from the count this afternnon:

13% of the people casting a valid vote supported the BNP. This was not of course an exclusive support as there were five seats up for election in the ward, and most voters chose to use all five votes.

But it does show that coming from nowhere, and without any campaigning, we are at 13% of voters are willing to support the party.

I short interview with Vicky Blain (our Candidate) can be seen on the Lancaster blog at: "Lancaster BNP"


From
Chris Hill
(Lancaster)

Lanky Patriot said...

You're giving me a bit of hope Chris.
I hope this is replicated across the NW.
I've never been so tense in an election before but then it's never been so important.
Whatever happens we have gained massively in members and enquiries. I've never seen anything like it before.
Win or lose we are on the move.

Anti-gag said...

I've just watched Griffin on BBC TV, he certainly does come over very strongly. Standing up to David Dimbleby who was obviously very upset about our first MEP.

On another point I've never seen such a biased presentation as the current (23:55hrs) election night program on the BBC. The BNP is described as a racist party without any attempt to justify it.

Well done Yorkshire well done Andrew Brons.

The NW region is still too close to call according to the BBC, regarding a BNP MEP that is.

From
Chris Hill
(Lancaster)

Lanky Patriot said...

Glad about Andrew Brons Chris.
We got 11.8% in Wigan and beat the Lib Dems.
UKIP beat the Tories and we were 4th.
I'm going to bed now. It's all too tense for me.
Details on the blog tomorrow.

Anti-gag said...

11.8% will certainly help the NW's overall vote. Well done Wigan BNP.

On another point the BBC's TV coverage has been a disgrace. David Dimbleby's comment are totally biased against the BNP.

From
Chris Hill
(Lancaster)

Anti-gag said...

Well done NW region BNP. Now we have 2 MEP.

The BBC are going bananas! The nonsense is sickening, all pretence of neutrality has gone. Why do I have to pay £145 a year for these fascist with their disdain for democracy.

Nick Griffin: like him or hate him he's done it! We are now truly a national main stream party.

From
Chris Hill
(Lancaster)

yaz